SAT WIZARD · STRUCTURED ANALYTIC TECHNIQUES

Pick a technique. Run it on your question.

Four classic structured analytic techniques in one place: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), Key Assumptions Check (KAC), Indicators and Warnings (I&W), and Premortem Analysis. Pick one, paste your question or product, and Card 14 will run the technique end to end with the technique-specific output an analyst expects.

PICK

Choose ACH, KAC, I&W, or Premortem. Each technique has its own output.

PASTE

Paste the analytic question, hypothesis, course of action, or finished product to run.

RUN

Get the technique-specific structure: ACH matrix, KAC table, I&W indicator set, or Premortem failure modes with mitigations.

REDLINE

Use the output as a redline. Send to the Intel Publisher when ready.

CARD 14 · STRUCTURED ANALYTIC TECHNIQUES WIZARD

Four techniques, one wizard.

Run a classic SAT against a real analytic question. The wizard returns the technique-specific artifact (ACH matrix, KAC ranked table, I&W indicator groups, Premortem failure modes with mitigations). The output is a teaching artifact and a working redline, not a finished product.

REMINDER: SATs are aids to thinking, not substitutes. The wizard produces a structured artifact you should challenge. Do not paste classified material or PII you cannot lawfully share.

I confirm this input is publicly available or lawfully in my possession, and I will treat the output as a working redline.

TECHNIQUE

ACH

Competing Hypotheses

Heuer’s matrix. Hypotheses by evidence, scored Consistent / Inconsistent / Ambiguous / Not Applicable. Surviving hypothesis under ACH logic is the one with the fewest inconsistencies.

KAC

Key Assumptions Check

Identifies the load-bearing assumptions in your claim. For each: what it supports, evidence for and against, the impact if wrong, and a confidence level. Ranks by load-bearing weight.

Indicators & Warnings

I&W

Generates the observables that would support or refute your hypothesis. Each indicator is tagged for strength, observability, and a collection note.

PREMORTEM

Premortem Analysis

Imagine the analysis turned out wrong. Working backward, identifies failure modes, plausibility, the early-warning sign for each, and concrete mitigations to install now.

CONTEXT NOTE (OPTIONAL)

ANALYTIC QUESTION, HYPOTHESIS, OR PRODUCT

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